Sunday, June 23, 2013

Starting Off

As the start of this blog, I just wanna make it clear what I hope that this blog can become. As a major fan of the game of basketball I hope to learn more about analyzing statistics of players, teams, transactions, and trends to find out more about the game. I will focus on mainly the NBA, but perhaps at points will venture into exploring the college game. The purpose of this blog will be to provide a place for myself to share my analysis and present information to people who have the same interest as I do and want to learn more about the advanced statistics behind the game.

This first post will focus on some basic advanced stats that teams and analysts used to measure the effectiveness and efficiency of teams. The two ways to measure a team in simplest terms are Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. Offensive Rating measures how many points a team will score given 100 possessions and conversely Defensive Rating measures how many points a team will give up given 100 possessions. The formulas are simple and listed below:
OR=(Points scored*100)/Possessions 
DR=(Points surrendered*100)/Possessions
The purpose of this stat is to measure the efficiency of teams and eliminate the bias that certain paces will have on a team's scoring or defense.

The next basic advanced stats to examine are the Four Factors which are Effective Field Goal Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebounding Percentage, and Free Throw Rate. I will believe take some time to explain each of these statistics. 

Effective Field Goal % or EFG is a way to examine shooting percentage that weights 3 pointers more so than 2 pointers. The formula is (Field Goals+.5(3 Point Field Goals))/Field Goal Attempts.  This statistic allows for teams to get a better understand of how players are shooting and will allow some of the guards to improve their shooting % while interior players will see little change between their FG% and EFG%. 

Turnover Percentage is a way to measure how many turnovers a team commits every 100 possessions. The formula is (Turnovers*100)/Possessions. Teams in the NBA on average turn the ball over every 7-8 possessions so you can imagine how important to a franchise it is to take care of the ball and take as many shot opportunities as possible.

Offensive Rebound Percentage is a way to measure how often teams are rebounding their own shots. The formula is (Offensive Rebounds*100)/(Field Goal Attempts-Field Goals). As you can see with the last two factors, there is somewhat of a theme here. The turnover and offensive rebound percentages are ways to measure if a team is taking as many shots as possible during the course of a game. ORB% helps analysts understand which teams are making the most of their missed opportunities.

The final factor is Free Throw rate and it is a measure of how well teams are getting to the line and making those shots. The formula is Free throws made/Field goals attempted. Typically the worst free throw shooters on teams are hovering between 60-70% so that being said, NBA players are good enough to get to the free throw line and convert. Teams that are getting more opportunities at the free throw line are at a distinct advantage to win the game. 

Well that's it for my first post. I hope it was informative and allows you guys to get a general understanding. I plan on making a model for my next post, haven't decided what about, but definitely want to look into making my first model. Anyway thanks for reading!